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目录
0. 概述
辽观注：此标题是我们在搬运、整合过程中添加的。
埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝（阿姆哈拉语：ታላቁ የኢትዮጵያ ሕዳሴ ግድብ，罗马化：Tālāqu ye-Ītyōppyā Hidāsē Gidib）是埃塞俄比亚境内青尼罗河一条重力坝，位于本尚古勒-古马兹州，邻近苏丹边境。[7]该坝完工后的装机容量可达6,000兆瓦，将会是非洲最大的水力发电站。[8]大坝蓄水而成的水库预计有630亿立方米容量。[9]2020年7月该大坝已开始蓄水，预计蓄水完成需要5-15年。[1][10]
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, formerly known as the Millennium Dam and sometimes referred to as the Hidase Dam (Amharic: ሕዳሴ ግድብ, romanized: Hidāsē Gidib, Oromo: Hidha Hidāsē), is a gravity dam on the Blue Nile River under construction in Ethiopia since 2011. The dam is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 14 km (9 mi) east of the border with Sudan.[7][8]
【参考译文】埃塞俄比亚大复兴水坝，前身为千年大坝，有时也被称为希德大坝（阿姆哈拉语:ሕዳሴ ግድብ ，罗马化：Hidāsē Gidib，奥罗莫语：Hidha Hidāsē），是埃塞俄比亚蓝尼罗河上的一座重力坝，自2011年以来一直在建设中。该水坝位于埃塞俄比亚的贝尼山古尔-古穆兹地区，距离苏丹边境以东约14公里（9英里）。[7][8]
The primary purpose of the dam is electricity production to relieve Ethiopia’s acute energy shortage and to export electricity to neighbouring countries. With a planned installed capacity of 5.15 gigawatts, when completed, the dam would be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa [9] and among the 20 largest in the world.[10][11][12]
【参考译文】大坝的主要目的是发电，以缓解埃塞俄比亚严重的能源短缺，并向邻国出口电力。大坝计划装机容量为51.5亿瓦，建成后将成为非洲最大的水力发电厂[9]，跻身世界20大水力发电厂之列。[10][11][12]
苏丹支持埃塞俄比亚兴建大坝，不过反对由埃塞俄比亚单方面决定大坝的蓄水和运作。[11]尼罗河最下游的埃及担心复兴大坝会减少流入埃及的尼罗河水量。[12]2015年3月，三国领导人就建坝争议达成初步协议。[13]2018年1月，埃塞俄比亚总理海尔马里亚姆·德萨莱尼拒绝埃及提出由世界银行进行仲裁的提议。[14]
2018年7月26日，复兴大坝的项目经理西莫格努·贝克莱的尸体在埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴被发现，死因是枪伤。[15]
在卫星图像显示复兴大坝水库水位上升后，埃塞俄比亚水利、灌溉与能源部长西莱希·贝克莱于2020年7月15日向国营媒体EBC确认复兴大坝开始蓄水。[16]EBC稍后宣称报导有误并致歉。在下游的苏丹宣称青尼罗河水位下降。[17]2020年7月21日，埃塞俄比亚总理办公室在声明中确认复兴大坝的第一年蓄水目标已完成。[18]2021年7月19日，西莱希·贝克莱宣布复兴大坝已完成第二年的蓄水计划。[19]
First phase of filling the reservoir began in July 2020 and in August 2020 water level increased to 540 meters (40 meters higher than the bottom of the river which is at 500 meters above sea level).[1][13] The second phase of filling was completed on 19 July 2021, with water levels increased to around 575 meters.[14] The third filling was completed on 12 August 2022 to a level of 600 metres (2,000 ft). The fourth filling was completed on 11 September 2023 with water levels at around 625 meters. Actual water level (1 September 2023) is at around 620 meters and was measured using images from the Sentinel satellite. It will take between 4 and 7 years to fill with water,[15] depending on hydrologic conditions during the filling period.[16]
【参考译文】水库的第一阶段蓄水始于2020年7月，2020年8月水位上升至540米（比河底高出40米，河底位于海拔500米处）。[1][13] 第二阶段的蓄水于2021年7月19日完成，水位上升至575米左右。[14] 第三阶段的蓄水于2022年8月12日完成，水位达到600米（2,000英尺）。第四阶段的蓄水于2023年9月11日完成，水位约为625米。实际水位（2023年9月1日）约为620米，使用哨兵卫星图像进行测量。根据填筑期间的水文条件，需要4到7年的时间才能填满水。[15] [16]
2021年9月，埃塞俄比亚军方宣称挫败了提格雷人民解放阵线试图破坏复兴大坝建设的计划，埃塞俄比亚军在战斗中杀死350人。[20]
2021年9月，联合国安理会通过了一项声明，鼓励埃及、埃塞俄比亚和苏丹在非洲联盟的主持下“恢复谈判”，“迅速敲定”关于埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝的争议和协议。安理会在突尼斯起草的声明中明确指出，该协议应“在合理时间内对埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝的填补和运作具有相互接受和约束力”。[21]
2022年2月20日，复兴大坝开始投入发电。[22]
1. 背景 ｜ Background
The name that the Blue Nile river takes in Ethiopia (“Abay”) is derived from the Ge’ez word for ‘great’ to imply its being ‘the river of rivers’. The word Abay still exists in Ethiopian major languages to refer to anything or anyone considered to be superior.
【参考译文】青尼罗河在埃塞俄比亚的名称（“Abay”）源于古吉斯语中的“伟大”一词，暗示其是“众河之河”。Abay一词在埃塞俄比亚的主要语言中仍然存在，用来指代任何被认为优越的人或事物。
The eventual site for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was identified by the United States Bureau of Reclamation in the course of the Blue Nile survey, which was conducted between 1956 and 1964 during the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie. Due to the coup d’état of 1974 and following 17-year-long Ethiopian Civil War, however, the project failed to progress. The Ethiopian Government surveyed the site in October 2009 and August 2010. In November 2010, a design for the dam was submitted by James Kelston.[18]
【参考译文】埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝最终的选址是在1956年至1964年海尔·塞拉西一世统治期间由美国垦务局在青尼罗河考察中确定的。然而，由于1974年的政变和随后的长达17年的埃塞俄比亚内战，该项目的进展陷入了停滞。埃塞俄比亚政府于2009年10月和2010年8月对选址进行了考察。2010年11月，詹姆斯·凯尔斯顿提交了大坝的设计方案。[18]
On 31 March 2011, a day after the project was made public, a US$4.8 billion contract was awarded without competitive bidding to Italian company Salini Impregilo, and the dam’s foundation stone was laid on 2 April 2011 by the Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.[19] A rock-crushing plant was constructed, along with a small air strip for fast transportation.[20] The expectation was for the first two power-generation turbines to become operational after 44 months of construction, or early 2015.[21]
【参考译文】2011年3月31日，即项目公开宣布的次日，48亿美元的合同在没有竞争投标的情况下授予了意大利公司Salini Impregilo，2011年4月2日，总理梅莱斯·泽纳维为该大坝奠基。[19]同时，一座岩石破碎厂和一个小型简易机场也相继建成，以便于快速运输。[20]人们预期，在44个月的施工后，首批两台发电涡轮机将于2015年初投入运行。[21]
Egypt, located over 2,500 kilometres (1,600 mi) downstream of the site, opposes the dam, which it believes will reduce the amount of water available from the Nile.[4] Zenawi argued, based on an unnamed study, that the dam would not reduce water availability downstream and would also regulate water for irrigation.[21] In May 2011, it was announced that Ethiopia would share blueprints for the dam with Egypt so that the downstream impact could be examined.[22]
【参考译文】位于该地点下游2500公里（1600英里）的埃及反对修建大坝，埃及认为这将减少尼罗河的水量。泽纳维根据一项未具名的研究称，大坝不会减少下游的水资源，而且还可以调节灌溉用水。2011年5月，埃塞俄比亚宣布将与埃及分享大坝的蓝图，以便对下游的影响进行调查。
The dam was originally called “Project X”, and after its contract was announced it was called the Millennium Dam.[23] On 15 April 2011, the Council of Ministers renamed it Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.[24] Ethiopia has a potential for about 45 GW of hydropower.[25] The dam is being funded by government bonds and private donations. It was slated for completion in July 2017.[18]
【参考译文】该大坝最初被称为“Project X”，在签署合同后，它被称为千年大坝。[23] 2011年4月15日，部长理事会将其更名为埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝。[24] 埃塞俄比亚拥有约45吉瓦的水力发电潜力。[25] 该大坝由政府债券和私人捐款资助。原计划于2017年7月完工。[18]
The potential impacts of the dam have been the source of severe regional controversy.[26] The Government of Egypt, a country which depends on the Nile for about 90% of its water,[27] has demanded that Ethiopia cease construction on the dam as a precondition to negotiations, has sought regional support for its position, and some political leaders have discussed methods to sabotage it.[28] Egypt has planned a diplomatic initiative to undermine support for the dam in the region as well as in other countries supporting the project such as China and Italy.[29] However, other nations in the Nile Basin Initiative have expressed support for the dam, including Sudan, the only other nation downstream of the Blue Nile, although Sudan’s position towards the dam has varied over time.[30] In 2014, Sudan accused Egypt of inflaming the situation.[31]
【参考译文】该大坝的潜在影响已成为严重的地区争议的根源。[26] 埃及政府——这个国家约90%的水来自尼罗河——要求埃塞俄比亚停止建设大坝作为谈判的前提，并寻求区域对其立场的支持，一些政治领导人讨论了破坏大坝的方法。[28] 埃及计划采取外交举措，削弱该地区以及支持该项目的其他国家（如中国和意大利）对大坝的支持。[29] 然而，尼罗河流域倡议中的其他国家表示支持该大坝，包括苏丹——青尼罗河下游的唯一国家，尽管苏丹对大坝的立场随着时间的推移而有所变化。[30] 2014年，苏丹指责埃及加剧了局势。[31]
Ethiopia denies that the dam will have a negative impact on downstream water flows and contends that the dam will, in fact, increase water flows to Egypt by reducing evaporation on Lake Nasser.[32] Ethiopia has accused Egypt of being unreasonable; In October 2019, Egypt stated that talks with Sudan and Ethiopia over the operation of a $4 billion hydropower dam that Ethiopia is building on the Nile have reached a deadlock.[33] Beginning in November 2019, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin began facilitating negotiations between the three countries.[34]
【参考译文】埃塞俄比亚否认大坝将对下游水流产生负面影响，并声称大坝实际上将通过减少纳塞尔湖的蒸发来增加流向埃及的水流。[32] 埃塞俄比亚指责埃及是不合理的；2019年10月，埃及表示，与苏丹和埃塞俄比亚就埃塞俄比亚在尼罗河上建造的40亿美元水电大坝的运营问题进行的谈判陷入僵局。[33] 从2019年11月起，美国财政部长史蒂文·特朗普·姆努钦开始促进三国之间的谈判。[34]
2. 成本和资助 ｜ Cost and financing
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is estimated to cost close to 5 billion US dollars, about 7% of the 2016 Ethiopian gross national product.[35] The lack of international financing for projects on the Blue Nile River has persistently been attributed to Egypt’s campaign to keep control of Nile water sharing.[35] Ethiopia has been forced to finance the GERD with crowdsourcing through internal fundraising in the form of selling bonds and persuading employees to contribute a portion of their incomes.[36] Contributions are made in the newly official website confirmed by the verified account of the Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia[37]
【参考译文】据估计，大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝（GERD）造价接近50亿美元，占2016年埃塞俄比亚国民生产总值的7%。[35] 青尼罗河项目缺乏国际融资一直被归因于埃及对尼罗河水资源共享的控制。[35] 埃塞俄比亚被迫通过众筹来为大坝筹集资金，通过内部筹款的形式出售债券，并说服员工捐出一部分收入。[36] 捐款已在新官方网站上得到确认，由埃塞俄比亚总理办公室的验证账户确认。[37]
Of the total cost, 1 billion US dollars for turbines and electrical equipment was funded by the Exim Bank of China.[38][39]
【参考译文】在总成本中，用于涡轮机和电气设备的10亿美元由中国进出口银行资助。[38][39]
2. 设计 ｜ Design
The design changed several times between 2011 and 2019. This affected both the electrical parameters and the storage parameters.
【参考译文】从2011年至2019年，设计变更了好几次，这影响了电气参数和储存参数。
Originally, in 2011, the hydropower plant was to receive 15 generating units with 350 MW nameplate capacity each, resulting in a total installed capacity of 5,250 MW with an expected power generation of 15,128 GWh per year.[40] Its planned generation capacity was later increased to 6,000 MW, through 16 generating units with 375 MW nominal capacity each. The expected power generation was estimated at 15,692 GWh per year. In 2017, the design was again changed to add another 450 MW for a total of 6,450 MW, with a planned power generation of 16,153 GWh per year.[41][42] That was achieved by upgrading 14 of the 16 generating units from 375 MW to 400 MW without changing the nominal capacity.[43] According to a senior Ethiopian official, on 17 October 2019,[5] the power generation capacity of the GERD is now 5,150 MW, with 13 turbines (2x 375 MW and 11x 400 MW)[44] down from 16 turbines.
【参考译文】最初，在2011年，水电站将接收15台350兆瓦的名义发电能力的发电机组，总装机容量为5250兆瓦，预计年发电量为15128吉瓦时。[40] 其计划的发电能力后来通过每台375兆瓦名义容量的16台发电机组提高到6000兆瓦。预计年发电量估计为15692吉瓦时。2017年，设计再次更改，增加了450兆瓦，总计为6450兆瓦，计划年发电量为16153吉瓦时。[41][42] 这通过将16台发电机组中的14台从375兆瓦升级到400兆瓦而不改变其额定容量来实现。[43]据埃塞俄比亚一名高级官员称，2019年10月17日，[5]杰贝勒河水电站的发电能力为5150兆瓦，有13台涡轮机（2x 375兆瓦和11x 400兆瓦），比16台涡轮机少。
Not only the electrical power parameters changed over time, but also the storage parameters. Originally, in 2011, the dam was planned to be 145 m (476 ft) tall with a volume of 10.1 million m³. The reservoir was planned to have a volume of 66 km3 (54,000,000 acre⋅ft) and a surface area of 1,680 km2 (650 sq mi) at full supply level. The rock-filled saddle dam beside the main dam was planned to have a height of 45 m (148 ft) meters, a length of 4,800 m (15,700 ft) and a volume of 15 million m³.[18][45]
【参考译文】不仅电力参数随时间而改变，而且储能参数也发生了变化。最初，在2011年，大坝原计划建为高145米（476英尺），体积为1010万立方米。水库原计划蓄水量为66立方公里（54,000,000英亩·英尺），满水时表面积为1680平方公里（650平方英里）。主坝旁的堆石坝原计划高度为45米（148英尺），长度为4800米（15700英尺），体积为1500万立方米。[18][45]
In 2013, an Independent Panel of Experts (IPoE) assessed the dam and its technological parameters. At that time, the reservoir sizes were changed already. The size of the reservoir at full supply level went up to 1,874 km2 (724 sq mi), an increase of 194 km2 (75 sq mi). The storage volume at full supply level had increased to 74 km3 (60,000,000 acre⋅ft), an increase of 7 km3 (1.7 cu mi).[46] These numbers did not change after 2013. The storage volume of 74 km3 (60,000,000 acre⋅ft) represents nearly the entire 84 km3 (68,000,000 acre⋅ft) annual flow of the Nile.[44]
【参考译文】2013年，独立专家小组（IPoE）评估了大坝及其技术参数。当时，水库规模已经发生了变化。满水时水库的面积增至1874平方公里（724平方英里），增加了194平方公里（75平方英里）。满水时水库的蓄水量增至74立方公里（60,000,000英亩·英尺），增加了7立方公里（1.7立方英里）。[46]这些数字在2013年之后没有改变。满水时蓄水量74立方公里（60,000,000英亩·英尺）几乎占尼罗河年流量84立方公里（68,000,000英亩·英尺）的全部。[44]
After the IPoE made its recommendations, in 2013, the dam parameters were changed to account for higher flow volumes in case of extreme floods: a main dam height of 155 m (509 ft), an increase of 10 m (33 ft), with a length of 1,780 m (5,840 ft) (no change) and a dam volume of 10.2 million cubic metres (360×106 cu ft), an increase of 100,000 m3 (3,500,000 cu ft). The outlet parameters did not change, only the crest of the main dam was raised. The rock saddle dam went up to a height of 50 m (160 ft), an increase of 5 metres (16 ft), with a length of 5,200 m (17,100 ft), an increase of 400 metres (1,300 ft). The volume of the rock saddle dam increased to 16.5 million cubic metres (580×106 cu ft), an increase of 1.5 million cubic metres (53×106 cu ft).[46][47]
【参考译文】在独立专家小组提出建议之后，2013年大坝参数发生了变化，以适应极端洪水时更大的流量：大坝主要高度为155米（509英尺），增加了10米（33英尺），长度为1780米（5840英尺）（没有变化），大坝体积为1020万立方米（360×106立方英尺），增加了10万立方米（350万立方英尺）。出水口参数没有改变，只有主坝的顶部升高了。岩石坝的高度升至50米（160英尺），增加了5米（16英尺），长度为5200米（17，100英尺），增加了400米（1，300英尺）。岩石坝的体积增加到了1650万立方米（580×106立方英尺），增加了150万立方米（53×106立方英尺）。[46][47]
The design parameters as of August 2017 are as follows, given the changes as outlined above:
【参考译文】由于上文所述的变化，截至2017年8月的设计参数如下：
2.1 两座大坝 ｜ Two dams
The zero level of the main dam, the ground level, will be at a height of about 500 m (1,600 ft) above sea level, corresponding roughly to the level of the river bed of the Blue Nile. Counting from the ground level, the main gravity dam will be 145 m (476 ft) tall, 1,780 m (5,840 ft) long and composed of roller-compacted concrete.[2][13] The crest of the dam will be at a height of 655 m (2,149 ft) above sea level. The outlets of the two powerhouses are below the ground level, the total height of the dam will, therefore, be slightly higher than that of the given height of the dam. In some publications, the main contractor constructing the dam puts forward a number of 170 m (560 ft) for the dam height, which might account for the additional depth of the dam below ground level, which would mean 15 m (49 ft) of excavations from the basement before filling the reservoir. The structural volume of the dam will be 10,200,000 m3 (13,300,000 cu yd). The main dam will be 40 km (25 mi) from the border with Sudan.
【参考译文】主坝的零水位，即地面水平，将位于海拔约500米（1600英尺）处，大致相当于青尼罗河河床的水平。从地面水平算起，主重力坝高145米（476英尺），长1780米（5840英尺），由碾压混凝土组成。 [1] [2] 大坝顶部将位于海拔655米（2149英尺）处。两个发电厂房的出口位于地面水平以下，因此大坝的总高度将略高于大坝的给定高度。在一些出版物中，建造大坝的主要承包商提出大坝高度为170米（560英尺），这可能解释了大坝在地面水平以下的额外深度，这意味着在填满水库之前，需要从地下室挖掘15米（49英尺）。大坝的结构体积为1020万立方米（1330万立方码）。主坝距离苏丹边境40公里（25英里）。
Supporting the main dam and reservoir will be a curved and 4.9 km (3 mi) long and 50 m (164 ft) high rock-fill saddle dam.[13] The ground level of the saddle dam is at an elevation of about 600 m (2,000 ft) above sea level. The surface of the saddle dam has a bituminous finish, to keep the interior of the dam dry. The saddle dam will be just 3.3–3.5 km (2–2 mi) away from the border with Sudan, it is much closer to the border than the main dam.
【参考译文】大坝和蓄水池的支撑结构将是一座弧形、长4.9公里（3英里）、高50米（164英尺）的岩石填充鞍形坝。鞍形坝的地面水平面海拔约600米（2000英尺）。鞍形坝的表面有沥青涂层，以保持大坝内部干燥。鞍形坝距离苏丹边境仅3.3-3.5公里（2-2英里），比主坝更靠近边境。
The reservoir behind both dams will have a storage capacity of 74 km3 (60,000,000 acre⋅ft) and a surface area of 1,874 km2 (724 sq mi) when at full supply level of 640 m (2,100 ft) above sea level [48] The full supply level is therefore 140 m (460 ft) above the ground level of the main dam. Hydropower generation can happen between reservoir levels of 590 m (1,940 ft), the so-called minimum operating level, and 640 m (2,100 ft), the full supply level. The live storage volume, usable for power generation between both levels is then 59.2 km3 (48,000,000 acre⋅ft). The first 90 m (300 ft) of the height of the dam will be a dead height for the reservoir, leading to a dead storage volume of the reservoir of 14.8 km3 (12,000,000 acre⋅ft).[46]
【参考译文】两座大坝后面的水库的蓄水能力为74立方千米（60,000,000英亩·英尺），当水库水位达到海拔640米（2,100英尺）的满载水位时，水库的表面积为1,874平方千米（724平方英里）。因此，满载水位比主坝地面水平面高140米（460英尺）。水力发电可以在水库水位在590米（1,940英尺）和640米（2,100英尺）之间时进行，这两个水位之间可用于发电的有效存储量为59.2立方千米（48,000,000英亩·英尺）。大坝高度的前90米（300英尺）是水库的死水位，导致水库的死存储量为14.8立方千米（12,000,000英亩·英尺）。[46]
2.2 三条溢洪道 ｜ Three spillways
The dams will have three spillways, each using approximately 18,000 cubic meters of concrete. These spillways together are designed for a flood of up to 38,500 m3/s (1,360,000 cu ft/s), an event not considered to happen at all[citation needed], as this discharge volume is the so-called ‘Probable Maximum Flood’. All waters from the three spillways are designed to discharge into the Blue Nile before the river enters Sudanese territory.
【参考译文】大坝将有三个溢洪道，每个溢洪道大约使用18,000立方米的混凝土。这些溢洪道一起设计用于最大流量为38,500立方米/秒（1,360,000立方英尺/秒）的洪水，这是一个被认为根本不会发生的事件[需要引证]，因为这种排水量被称为所谓的“可能的最大洪水”。所有来自三个溢洪道的水都被设计在尼罗河进入苏丹领土之前排入尼罗河。
The main and gated spillway is located to the left of the main dam and will be controlled by six floodgates and have a design discharge of 14,700 m3/s (520,000 cu ft/s) in total. The spillway will be 84 m (276 ft) wide at the outflow gates. The base level of the spillway will be at 624.9 m (2,050 ft), well below the full supply level.
【参考译文】主溢洪道和闸门溢洪道位于主坝左侧，将由六扇闸门控制，总设计排水量为14,700立方米/秒（520,000立方英尺/秒）。溢洪道的出水口宽度为84米（276英尺）。溢洪道的基础水平位于624.9米（2,050英尺）处，远低于满库水位。
An ungated spillway, the auxiliary spillway, sits at the center of the main dam with an open width of about 205 m (673 ft). This spillway has a base-level at 640 m (2,100 ft), which is exactly the full supply level of the reservoir. The dam crest is 15 m (49 ft) higher to the left and to the right of the spillway. This ungated spillway is only expected to be used, if the reservoir is both full and the flow exceeds 14,700 m3/s (520,000 cu ft/s), a flow value, that is expected to be exceeded once every ten years.
【参考译文】无闸门溢洪道，即辅助溢洪道，位于主坝中心，开放宽度约为205米（673英尺）。该溢洪道的基础水平位于640米（2,100英尺）处，这恰好是水库的满库水位。溢洪道左侧和右侧的水坝顶部高出15米（49英尺）。这个无闸门溢洪道只有在水库满库且流量超过14,700立方米/秒（520,000立方英尺/秒）时才会使用，这个流量值预计每十年才会超过一次。
A third spillway, an emergency spillway, is located to the right of the curved saddle dam, with a base level at 642 m (2,106 ft). This emergency spillway has an open space of about 1,200 m (3,900 ft) along its rim. This third spillway will carry water only if the conditions for a flood of more than around 30,000 m3/s (1,100,000 cu ft/s) are given, corresponding to a flood to occur only once every 10,000 years.
【参考译文】第三条溢洪道，即紧急溢洪道，位于弯曲的鞍形大坝右侧，基础水平位于642米（2,106英尺）处。该紧急溢洪道的边缘沿线有约1,200米（3,900英尺）的开放空间。只有在发生超过约30,000立方米/秒（1,100,000立方英尺/秒）的洪水时，才会使用第三条溢洪道，这相当于每1万年才会发生一次的洪水。
3. 建设 ｜ Construction
The main contractor is the Italian company Webuild (formerly Salini Impregilo), which also served as primary contractor for the Gilgel Gibe II, Gilgel Gibe III and Tana Beles dams. Simegnew Bekele was the project manager of GERD from the start of construction in 2011 up to his death on 26 July 2018. In October same year he was replaced by Kifle Horo. The dam is expected to require 10 million cubic meters of concrete. The government has pledged to use only domestically produced concrete. In March 2012, Salini awarded the Italian firm Tratos Cavi SPA a contract to supply low- and high-voltage cable for the dam.[47][55] Alstom will provide the eight 375 MW Francis turbines for the project’s first phase, at a cost of €250 million.[56] As of April 2013, nearly 32 per cent of the project was complete. Site excavation and some concrete placement was underway. One concrete batch plant has been completed with another under construction.[57] Diversion of the Blue Nile was completed on 28 May 2013 and marked by a ceremony the same day.[58]
【参考译文】总承包商是意大利公司Webuild（前身为Salini Impregilo），该公司也是吉格吉贝二期、吉格吉贝三期和塔纳贝莱斯大坝的主要承包商。西梅格纽·贝克勒从2011年工程开工起担任GERD的项目经理，直到2018年7月26日去世。同年10月，他被基弗尔·霍罗取代。大坝预计需要1000万立方米的混凝土。政府已承诺只使用国产混凝土。2012年3月，Salini向意大利公司Tratos Cavi SPA授予了一份合同，为该大坝提供高低压电缆。[47][55]阿尔斯通将为该项目第一阶段提供8台375兆瓦的弗朗西斯水轮机，耗资2.5亿欧元。[56]截至2013年4月，该项目已完成近32%。现场开挖和一些混凝土浇筑正在进行中。一个混凝土搅拌厂已经完工，另一个正在建设中。[57]青尼罗河的改道于2013年5月28日完成，并在同一天举行了仪式。[58]
In October 2019, the work was approximately 70% complete.[59] As of March 2020, the steelworks reached 35% complete, civil works are 87% complete while electro-mechanical works are 17% complete, to attain in total 71% construction complete according to Belachew Kasa, Project Deputy Director.[60]
【参考译文】2019年10月，该工程完成了约70%。[59]到2020年3月，钢铁厂完成了35%，土木工程完成了87%，机电工程完成了17%，根据项目副主任Belachew Kasa的说法，总计完成了71%的施工。[60]
On 26 June 2020, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia agreed to delay filling the reservoir for a few weeks.[61]
【参考译文】2020年6月26日，埃及、苏丹和埃塞俄比亚同意将水库蓄水推迟数周。[61]
On 21 July 2020, Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, announced that the first phase of filling the reservoir had been completed.[62] The early filling was attributed to heavy rains. In his statement, Abiy stated that “We have successfully completed the first dam filling without bothering and hurting anyone else. Now the dam is overflowing downstream”.[62] The target for the first year filling was 4.9 cubic kilometres, while the dam has capacity to hold 74 cubic kilometres when completed.[63]
【参考译文】2020年7月21日，埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德宣布水库蓄水第一阶段已完成。[62]提前蓄水归因于暴雨。阿比在声明中表示：“我们已经成功完成了第一阶段的水库蓄水，没有打扰和伤害到任何人。现在大坝下游正在溢流。”[62]第一年的蓄水目标是4.9立方公里，而大坝完工后的容量为74立方公里。[63]
The first phase of filling the reservoir began in July 2020, to a maximum depth of 70 metres (230 ft) utilising a temporary sill. Further construction work is necessary before the reservoir can be filled to a level for electricity generation.[1][13]
【参考译文】水库蓄水的第一阶段于2020年7月开始，最大深度为70米（230英尺），使用了临时拦水坝。在蓄水至发电水位之前，还需进行进一步的施工工作。[1][13]
The second phase of filling of the GERD reservoir was completed on 19 July 2021[64] with estimates of reaching the level of 573 metres (1,880 ft) (a.m.s.l) and retaining no more than 4.5 km3 (1.1 cu mi) at this stage.[65][66]
【参考译文】复兴大坝水库蓄水的第二阶段于2021年7月19日完成[64]，预计水位将达到573米（1，880英尺）（海拔高度），这一阶段蓄水量不超过4.5立方公里（1.1立方英里）。[65][66]
In February 2021, Ethiopian Minister of Water and Irrigation, Seleshi Bekele, mentioned that the engineering work in constructing the dam reached 91%, while the total construction rate was 78.3%.[67] In May 2021, Minister of Water and Irrigation Seleshi Bekele mentioned that 80% of dam construction was complete.[68]
【参考译文】2021年2月，埃塞俄比亚水利和灌溉部部长塞莱什·贝克莱提到，大坝建设的工程进度已达到91%，而总建设率为78.3%。[67] 2021年5月，水利和灌溉部部长塞莱什·贝克莱提到，大坝建设已完成80%。[68]
As of April 2023, Ethiopia’s Office of National Coordination announced that 90% of constructions had been completed.[69]
【参考译文】截至2023年4月，埃塞俄比亚国家协调办公室宣布，90%的施工已完成。[69]
4. 争议 ｜ Controversies
4.1 工程问题 ｜ Engineering questions
In 2012, the International Panel of Experts was formed with experts from Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia and other independent entities to discuss mainly engineering and partially impact related questions. This panel concluded at a number of engineering modifications, that were proposed to Ethiopia and the main contractor constructing the dam. One of the two main engineering questions, dealing with the size of flood events and the constructive response against them, was later addressed by the contractor. The emergency spillway located near the rock saddle dam saw an increase of the rim length from 300 m to 1,200 m to account even for the largest possible flood of the river.
【参考译文】2012年，国际专家组成立，成员包括来自埃及、苏丹、埃塞俄比亚和其他独立实体的专家，主要讨论工程和部分影响相关问题。该专家组提出了一些工程修改建议，提交给埃塞俄比亚和主要承包商建造大坝。两个主要工程问题中的一个，涉及洪水的规模以及如何应对洪水，后来由承包商解决。靠近岩石鞍形大坝的紧急溢洪道，其边缘长度从300米增加到1200米，以应对河流水位可能出现的最大洪水。
The second main recommendation of the panel however found no immediate resolution. This second recommendation dealt with the structural integrity of the dam in context with the underlying rock basement as to avoid the danger of a sliding dam due to an unstable basement. It was argued by the panel, that the original structural investigations considered only a generic rock mass without taking special conditions like faults and sliding planes in the rock basement (gneiss) into account. The panel noted, that there was indeed an exposed sliding plane in the rock basement, this plane potentially allowing a sliding process downstream. The panel didn’t argue that a catastrophic dam failure with a release of dozens of cubic kilometres of water would be possible, probable or even likely, but the panel argued, that the given safety factor to avoid such a catastrophic failure might be non-optimal in the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.[46] It was later revealed that the underlying basement of the dam was completely different from all expectations and did not fit the geological studies as the needed excavation works exposed the underlying gneiss. The engineering works then had to be adjusted, with digging and excavating deeper than originally planned[citation needed], which took extra time and capacity and also required more concrete.[70]
【参考译文】然而，专家组的第二项主要建议没有立即得到解决。该建议涉及大坝的结构完整性，与下伏的岩石基底相结合，以避免由于不稳定基底造成大坝滑坡的危险。专家组认为，最初的构造调查只考虑了一般岩体，而没有考虑到岩石基底（片麻岩）中的断层和滑动面等特殊条件。专家组指出，岩石基底中确实存在暴露的滑动面，该滑动面可能允许下游的滑动过程。专家组没有争辩说，可能、很可能甚至极有可能发生灾难性大坝失事，导致数十立方公里的水泄漏，但专家组认为，在埃塞俄比亚大坝复兴的情况下，避免这种灾难性失事的安全系数可能不是最优的。[46]后来发现，大坝的下伏基底与所有预期完全不同，不符合地质研究，因为所需的开挖工程暴露了下伏的片麻岩。工程工作必须进行调整，挖掘和开挖深度比原计划更深[需要引用]，这需要额外的时间和能力，也需要更多的混凝土。[70]
4.2 涉嫌尺寸过大 ｜ Alleged over-sizing
Originally, in 2011, the hydropower plant was to receive 15 generating units with 350 MW nameplate capacity each, resulting in a total installed capacity of 5,250 MW with an expected power generation of 15,128 GWh per annum.[40] The capacity factor of the planned hydropower plant – the expected electricity production divided by the potential production if the power plant was utilised permanently at full capacity – was only 32.9% compared to 45–60% for other, smaller hydropower plants in Ethiopia. Critics concluded that a smaller dam would have been more cost-effective.[40]
【参考译文】最初，在2011年，该水电站将接收15台发电机组，每台发电机组的铭牌容量为350兆瓦，总装机容量为52.5亿瓦，预计年发电量为15128亿千瓦时。 [1] 计划中的水电站的容量系数——预期发电量除以如果该水电站永久满负荷运行时的潜在发电量——仅为32.9%，而埃塞俄比亚其他小型水电站的容量系数为45-60%。批评者认为，一座较小的水坝将更具成本效益。 [1]
Soon after, in 2012, the hydropower plant was upgraded to receive 16 generating units with 375 MW nameplate capacity each, increasing the total installed capacity to 6,000 MW, with the expected power generation going up only slightly to 15,692 GWh per annum. Consequently, the capacity factor shrank to 29.9%. According to Asfaw Beyene, a professor of mechanical engineering at San Diego State University in California, the dam and its hydropower plant are massively oversized: “GERD’s available power output, based on the average of river flow throughout the year and the dam height, is about 2,000 megawatts, not 6,000. There is little doubt that the system has been designed for a peak flow rate that only happens during the two to three months of the rainy season. Targeting near peak or peak flow rate makes no economic sense.”[71][72]
【参考译文】不久后的2012年，该水电站进行了升级，增加了16台发电机组，每台机组的额定容量为375兆瓦，使得总装机容量提升至6000兆瓦，预计的年发电量仅小幅上升至15692亿千瓦时。因此，容量因数下降到了29.9%。据加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥州立大学机械工程学教授阿斯法·贝耶内表示，这座大坝及其水电站的规模过于庞大：“基于全年河流流量平均值和大坝高度，GERD的可用电力输出约为2000兆瓦，而非6000兆瓦。毫无疑问，该系统是为雨季两到三个月才会出现的最高流速而设计的。针对接近最高或最高流速进行设计在经济上毫无意义。”[71][72]
In 2017, the total installed capacity was moved to 6,450 MW, without changing the number and nameplate capacity of the generating units (which then remained at 6,000 MW in total). This was thought to arrive from enhancements made to the generators.[10] The expected power generation per annum went up to 16,153 GWh,[41] the capacity factor shrank again and reached 28.6%. This time nobody publicly voiced concern. Such optimisation of the Francis turbines used at the dam site is indeed possible and is usually done by the provider of the turbines taking into account site-specific conditions.
【参考译文】2017年，总装机容量提升至6450兆瓦，但并未改变发电机组的数量和额定容量（当时的总额定容量保持在6000兆瓦）。这一提升被认为是通过对发电机的改进而实现的。[10] 预计的年发电量上升至16153亿千瓦时，[41] 而容量因数再次下降，达到了28.6%。这一次，没有公开表达关切的声音。的确，对大坝现场使用的弗朗西斯水轮机进行优化是可能的，通常由水轮机的供应商根据特定场地条件来完成。
Considering the critics voiced about the alleged over-sizing of the possible power output, now of 6,450 MW. Ethiopia is relying heavily on hydropower, but the country is often affected by droughts (see e.g. 2011 East Africa drought). The water reservoirs used for power generation in Ethiopia have a limited size. For example, the Gilgel Gibe I reservoir, that feeds both the Gilgel Gibe I powerplant and the Gilgel Gibe II Power Station, has a capacity of 0.7 km3. In times of drought, there is no water left to generate electrical power. This heavily affected Ethiopia in the drought years 2015/16 and it was only the Gilgel Gibe III powerplant, that in 2016 just started to run in trial service on a 14 km3 well-filled reservoir, that saved the economy of Ethiopia.[70] The GERD reservoir, once it has been filled, has a total water volume of 74 km3, 3 times the volume of Ethiopia’s largest lake, Lake Tana. Filling it takes 5–15 years and even by using all generating units at maximum capacity will not drain it within a few months. The installed power of 6.450 MW in combination with the size of the reservoir will help to manage the side effects of the next severe drought, when other hydropower plants have to stop their operations.
【参考译文】考虑到批评者对所谓的可能功率输出过大的声音，现在为6450兆瓦。埃塞俄比亚严重依赖水电，但该国经常受到干旱的影响（例如2011年东非干旱）。埃塞俄比亚用于发电的水库容量有限。例如，为吉尔吉尔吉贝一号电站和吉尔吉尔吉贝二号电站供水的吉尔吉尔吉贝一号水库，容量仅为0.7立方千米。在干旱时期，没有水剩下来发电。这严重影响了埃塞俄比亚在2015/16年的干旱年份，只有吉尔吉尔吉贝三号电站在2016年刚刚开始试运行，拥有一个装满的14立方千米水库，挽救了埃塞俄比亚的经济。[70] 一旦GERD水库被填满，它将拥有74立方千米的总水量，是埃塞俄比亚最大湖泊塔纳湖体积的三倍。填满它需要5-15年的时间，即使使用所有发电机组以最大容量运行，也不会在几个月内将其排干。6450兆瓦的装机功率结合水库的规模，将有助于应对下一次严重干旱的副作用，届时其他水电站将不得不停止运行。
5. 大坝的安全 ｜ Security around dam
In recent years due to the threat of a possible airstrike on the dam, the Ethiopian government has sought and bought several air defence systems from Russia, including the Pantsir-S1 air defence system, and from Israel, including the SPYDER-MR medium-range air defence system which was installed at the dam. Egypt sought to block the sale between Israel and Ethiopia but Israel ignored the request.[73][74][75][76][77]
【参考译文】近年来，由于可能对大坝进行空袭的威胁，埃塞俄比亚政府从俄罗斯购买了几个防空系统，包括“铠甲-S1”防空系统，并从以色列购买了SPYDER-MR中程防空系统，并安装在堤坝上。埃及试图阻止以色列和埃塞俄比亚之间的销售，但以色列无视了这一请求。[73][74][75][76][77]
6. 收益｜Benefits
A major benefit of the dam will be hydropower production. All the energy generated by GERD will be going into the national grid of Ethiopia to fully support the development of the whole country, both in rural and urban areas. The role of GERD will be to act as a stabilising backbone of the Ethiopian national grid. There will be exports, but only if there is a total surplus of energy generated in Ethiopia. This is mainly expected to happen during rainy seasons, when there is plenty of water for hydropower generation.[70]
【参考译文】大坝的主要好处是水力发电。GERD产生的所有能源都将进入埃塞俄比亚国家电网，以全面支持整个国家的发展，包括农村和城市地区。GERD的作用将是作为埃塞俄比亚国家电网的稳定支柱。将有出口，但只有在埃塞俄比亚产生能源总盈余的情况下。这主要预计在雨季发生，当时有足够的水用于水力发电。[70]
The eventual surplus electricity of GERD which does not fit the demand inside Ethiopia, is then to be sold and exported to neighbouring countries including Sudan and possibly Egypt, but also Djibouti.[78] Exporting the electricity from the dam would require the construction of massive transmission lines to major consumption centers such as Sudan’s capital Khartoum, located more than 400 km away from the dam. These export sales would come on top of electricity that is expected to be sold from other large hydropower plants. Powerplants that have been readied or are under construction in Ethiopia, such as Gilgel Gibe III or Koysha, whose exports (if given surplus energy) will mainly be going to Kenya through a 500 kV HVDC line.
【参考译文】GERD的剩余电力中不符合埃塞俄比亚国内的需求的部分，将被出售并出口到包括苏丹和可能的埃及在内的邻国，以及吉布提。[78] 从大坝出口电力将需要建造大规模的输电线路，通往主要消费中心，如距离大坝400多公里的苏丹首都喀土穆。这些出口销售将来自其他大型水电站的电力销售之上。在埃塞俄比亚已准备就绪或正在建设的水电站，如吉格吉贝三号或科亚沙，其出口（如果有剩余能源）将主要通过500千伏高压直流线路输送到肯尼亚。
The volume of the reservoir will be two to three times that of Lake Tana. Up to 7,000 tonnes of fish are expected to be harvested annually. The reservoir may become a tourist destination.[79]
【参考译文】水库的容量将是塔纳湖的两到三倍。预计每年可捕捞多达7000吨的鱼类。水库可能成为一个旅游胜地。[79]
Sudan expects fewer floods thanks to the dam, but this has not been observed in reality yet.[80][81]
【参考译文】由于大坝，苏丹预计洪水会减少，但实际上还没有观察到这一点。[80][81]
See also: Dams and reservoirs in Ethiopia【参见：埃塞俄比亚的大坝和水库】
The NGO International Rivers has commissioned a local researcher to make a field visit because so little environmental impact information is publicly available.[82]
【参考译文】由于公开可获得的环境影响信息非常少，非政府组织国际河流委托一位当地研究员进行了实地考察。[82]
Public consultation about dams in Ethiopia is affected by the political climate in the country. International Rivers reports that “conversations with civil society groups in Ethiopia indicate that questioning the government’s energy sector plans is highly risky, and there are legitimate concerns of government persecution. Because of this political climate, no groups are actively pursuing the issues surrounding hydro-power dams, nor publicly raising concerns about the risks in this situation, extremely limited and inadequate public consultation has been organised” during the implementation of major dams.[83] In June 2011, Ethiopian journalist Reeyot Alemu was imprisoned after she raised questions about the proposed Grand Millennium Dam. Staff of International Rivers have received death threats.[citation needed] Former prime minister Meles Zenawi called opponents of the project “hydropower extremists” and “bordering on the criminal” at a conference of the International Hydropower Association (IHA) in Addis Ababa in April 2011. At the conference, the Ethiopian state power utility was embraced as a “Sustainability Partner” by the IHA.[84]
【参考译文】关于埃塞俄比亚大坝的公众咨询受到该国政治气候的影响。国际河流组织报告称，“与埃塞俄比亚民间社会团体的对话表明，质疑政府的能源部门计划是非常危险的，而且存在政府迫害的合理担忧。由于这种政治气氛，没有团体积极追究水力发电大坝的问题，也没有公开提出对这种情况下的风险的担忧，因此在实施重大大坝的过程中组织的公众咨询极为有限且不足。”（83）2011年6月，埃塞俄比亚ji4 zhe3 Reeyot Alemu因提出拟建的千年大坝问题而被jian1 jin4。国际河流组织的工作人员收到了si3 wang2威胁。（需要引用）前总理梅莱斯·泽纳维在2011年4月于亚的斯亚贝巴举行的国际水电协会（IHA）会议上将该项目的反对者称为“水电极端主义者”和“近乎犯罪”。在该会议上，埃塞俄比亚国家电力公司被国际水电协会接纳为“可持续发展伙伴”。（84）
7.1 对埃塞俄比亚的影响 ｜ Impact on Ethiopia
Since the Blue Nile is a highly seasonal river, the dam would reduce flooding downstream of the dam[85] including on the 15 km stretch within Ethiopia. On the one hand, the reduction of flooding is beneficial since it protects settlements from flood damage. On the other hand, it can be harmful if flood recession agriculture is practised in the river valley downstream of the dam since it deprives fields from being watered. However, the next water regulating dam in Sudan, the Roseires Dam, sits only a few dozens of kilometres downstream. The dam could also serve as a bridge across the Blue Nile, complementing a bridge that was under construction in 2009 further upstream.[86] An independent assessment estimated that at least 5,110 people will be resettled from the reservoir and downstream area, and the dam is expected to lead to a significant change in the fish ecology.[82] According to an independent researcher who conducted research in the area, 20,000 people are being relocated. According to the same source, “a solid plan (is) in place for the relocated people” and those who have already been resettled “were given more than they expected in compensation”. Locals have never seen a dam before[citation needed] and “are not completely sure what a dam actually is”, despite community meetings in which affected people were informed about the impacts of the dam on their livelihoods. Except for a few older people, almost all locals interviewed “expressed hope that the project brings something of benefit to them” in terms of education and health services or electricity supply based on the information available to them. At least some of the new communities for those relocated will be downstream of the dam. The area around the reservoir will consist of a 5 km buffer zone for malaria control that will not be available for settlement. In at least some upstream areas erosion control measures will be undertaken in order to reduce siltation of the reservoir.[87]
【参考译文】由于青尼罗河是一条季节性很强的河流，大坝将减少下游地区的洪水泛滥，包括在埃塞俄比亚境内的15公里河段。一方面，减少洪水泛滥是有益的，因为它保护了居民区免受洪水破坏。另一方面，如果下游河谷实行洪水退却农业，这可能会造成损害，因为它剥夺了田地的灌溉水源。然而，下一个调节水流的大坝——苏丹的罗赛雷斯大坝，仅位于下游几十公里处。这个大坝也可以作为蓝尼罗河上的一座桥梁，补充2009年上游正在建设的另一座桥梁。独立评估估计，至少有5110人将从水库和下游地区重新安置，而且预计大坝将导致鱼类生态发生重大变化。根据一位在该地区进行研究的独立研究者的说法，有2万人正在被迁移。同一消息来源称，“对被迁移的人有一个稳固的计划”，那些已经被重新安置的人“得到的补偿超出了他们的预期”。当地人以前从未见过大坝[需要引用]，并且“并不完全确定大坝究竟是什么”，尽管在社区会议上已经向受影响的人们通报了大坝对他们生计的影响。除了一些老年人外，几乎所有接受采访的当地人都“表达了希望该项目能为他们带来某种好处”的愿望，比如基于他们可获得的信息，改善教育和卫生服务或电力供应。至少一些为被迁移者建立的新社区将位于大坝下游。水库周围将设立一个5公里的缓冲区用于疟疾控制，该区域将不用于居住。至少在一些上游地区，将采取侵蚀控制措施以减少水库的淤积。
7.2 对苏丹和埃及的影响 ｜ Impact on Sudan and Egypt
The precise impact of the dam on the downstream countries is not known. Egypt fears a temporary reduction of water availability due to the filling of the reservoir and a permanent reduction because of evaporation from the reservoir. Studies indicate that the primary factors that will govern the impact during the reservoir-filling phase include the initial reservoir elevation of the Aswan High Dam, the rainfall that occurs during the filling period, and the negotiated agreement between the three countries. These studies also show that the risks of negative impacts can be minimised or eliminated only if the three countries closely and continuously coordinate.[16] The reservoir volume (74 cubic kilometres) is about 1.5 times the average annual flow (49 cubic kilometres) of the Blue Nile at the Egypt–Sudan border. This loss to downstream countries could be spread over several years if the countries reach an agreement. Depending on the initial storage in the Aswan High Dam and this filling schedule of the GERD, flows into Egypt could be temporarily reduced,[53] which may affect the livelihoods of two million farmers during the period of filling the reservoir. Allegedly, it would also “affect Egypt’s electricity supply by 25 to 40 percent, while the dam is being built”.[88] However, hydropower accounted for less than 12 per cent of total electricity production in Egypt in 2010 (14 out of 121 billion kWh),[89] so that a temporary reduction of 25 per cent in hydropower production translates into an overall temporary reduction in Egyptian electricity production of less than 3 per cent. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could also lead to a permanent lowering of the water level in Lake Nasser if floods are stored instead in Ethiopia. This would reduce the current evaporation of more than 10 cubic kilometres per year, and a 3 m reduction of the water level would also reduce the Aswan High Dam’s hydropower generating capacity by 100 MW. However, if the countries can reach a compromise, the increased storage in Ethiopia can provide a greater buffer to shortages in Sudan and Egypt during years of future drought.[66]
【参考译文】大坝对下游国家的确切影响尚不明确。埃及担心由于水库蓄水导致的水资源暂时性减少，以及由于水库蒸发造成的永久性减少。研究表明，在水库蓄水阶段控制影响的主要因素包括阿斯旺高坝的初始水库水位、蓄水期间发生的降雨量，以及三国之间协商达成的协议。这些研究还表明，只有三国紧密且持续协调，才能将负面影响的风险降到最低或消除。[16] 水库容量（74立方公里）约为青尼罗河在埃及-苏丹边境年平均流量（49立方公里）的1.5倍。如果各国达成协议，这种对下游国家的损失可以分散在几年内。根据阿斯旺高坝的初始蓄水量和GERD的蓄水计划，流入埃及的流量可能会暂时减少，[53] 这可能会影响两百万农民在水库蓄水期间的生计。据称，这也将“在建造大坝期间影响埃及25%到40%的电力供应”。[88] 然而，水电在2010年埃及总电力产量中占比不到12%（14亿千瓦时中的121亿千瓦时），[89] 因此水电产量暂时减少25%相当于埃及整体电力产量暂时减少不到3%。大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝还可能导致纳赛尔湖水位永久性下降，如果洪水被储存在埃塞俄比亚而不是排放。这将减少目前每年超过10立方公里的蒸发量，水位降低3米也将使阿斯旺高坝的水力发电能力减少100兆瓦。然而，如果各国能够达成妥协，埃塞俄比亚增加的蓄水量可以为苏丹和埃及在未来干旱年份提供更大的缓冲。[66]
The dam will retain silt. It will thus increase the useful lifetime of dams in Sudan – such as the Roseires Dam, the Sennar Dam and the Merowe Dam – and of the Aswan High Dam in Egypt. The beneficial and harmful effects of flood control would affect the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile, just as it would affect the Ethiopian part of the Blue Nile valley downstream of the dam.[90] Specifically, the GERD would reduce seasonal flooding of the plains surrounding the reservoir of the Roseires Dam located at Ad-Damazin, just as the Tekeze Dam, by retaining a reservoir in the deep gorges of the northern Ethiopian Highlands, had reduced flooding at Sudan’s Khashm el-Girba Dam.[91][48]
【参考译文】大坝将截留淤泥。因此，它将延长苏丹境内的大坝——如罗赛雷斯大坝、森纳尔大坝和梅鲁韦大坝——以及埃及的阿斯旺高坝的使用寿命。洪水控制的有益和有害效应将影响青尼罗河的苏丹部分，就像它将影响大坝下游的埃塞俄比亚部分一样。[90] 具体来说，大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝将通过在北部埃塞俄比亚高原的深峡谷中蓄水，减少围绕位于阿德达马津的罗赛雷斯大坝水库平原的季节性洪水，正如特克泽大坝通过保留水库减少了苏丹卡什姆埃尔吉尔巴大坝的洪水一样。[91][48]
The reservoir, located in the temperate Ethiopian Highlands and up to 140 m deep, will experience considerably less evaporation than downstream reservoirs such as Lake Nasser in Egypt, which loses 12% of its water flow due to evaporation as the water sits in the lake for 10 months. Through the controlled release of water from the reservoir to downstream, this could facilitate an increase of up to 5% in Egypt’s water supply, and presumably that of Sudan as well.[92]
【参考译文】位于埃塞俄比亚高原温带地区、深达140米的水库，将比下游的水库，如埃及的纳赛尔湖，经历明显较少的蒸发。纳赛尔湖由于水在湖中停留10个月，会因蒸发损失12%的水流。通过对水库中的水进行控制性释放，这可能有助于增加埃及多达5%的水供应，推测苏丹的水供应也会有所增加。[92]
回应：合作和指责 ｜ Reactions: cooperation and condemnation
Egypt has serious concerns about the project;[94][95] therefore it requested to be granted inspection allowance on the design and the studies of the dam, in order to allay its fears, but Ethiopia has denied the request unless Egypt relinquishes its veto on water allocation.[96] After a meeting between the Ministers of Water of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in March 2012, Sudan’s President Bashir said that he supported the building of the dam.[97]
【参考译文】埃及对这个项目有严重的担忧；[94][95] 因此，它要求被授予对大坝设计和研究的检查许可，以消除其担忧，但埃塞俄比亚拒绝了这一请求，除非埃及放弃对水资源分配的否决权。[96] 在2012年3月埃及、苏丹和埃塞俄比亚的水利部长会晤后，苏丹总统巴希尔表示他支持建造这座大坝。[97]
A Nile treaty signed by the upper riparian states in 2010, the Cooperative Framework Agreement,[98] has not been signed by either Egypt or Sudan, as they claim it violates the 1959 treaty,[99] in which Sudan and Egypt give themselves exclusive rights to all of the Nile’s waters.[100] The Nile Basin Initiative provides a framework for dialogue among all Nile riparian countries.[91]
【参考译文】2010年由上游沿岸国家签署的尼罗河条约——《合作框架协议》[98]，尚未得到埃及或苏丹的签署，因为它们声称该条约违反了1959年的条约[99]，在该条约中，苏丹和埃及赋予自己对尼罗河全部水资源的专有权利。[100] 尼罗河流域倡议为所有尼罗河沿岸国家之间的对话提供了一个框架。[91]
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan established an International Panel of Experts to review and assess the study reports of the dam. The panel consists of 10 members; 6 from the three countries and 4 international in the fields of water resources and hydrologic modelling, dam engineering, socioeconomic and environmental.[90] The panel held its fourth meeting in Addis Ababa in November 2012. It reviewed documents about the environmental impact of the dam and visited the dam site.[101] The panel submitted its preliminary report to the respective governments at the end of May 2013. Although the full report has not been made public, and will not be until it is reviewed by the governments, Egypt and Ethiopia both released details. The Ethiopian government stated that, according to the report, “the design of the dam is based on international standards and principles” without naming those standards and principles. It also said that the dam “offers high benefit for all the three countries and would not cause significant harm on both the lower riparian countries”.[102] According to Egyptian government, however, the report “recommended changing and amending the dimensions and the size of the dam”.[103] As of mid-July 2022 the three-way negotiations were not held for more than a year.[104]
【参考译文】埃及、埃塞俄比亚和苏丹成立了一个国际专家小组，以审查和评估大坝的研究报告。该小组由10名成员组成；来自这三个国家的6名成员和4名国际成员，他们在水资源和水文建模、大坝工程、社会经济和环境领域拥有专业知识。[90] 该小组于2012年11月在亚的斯亚贝巴举行了第四次会议。它审查了有关大坝环境影响的文件，并参观了大坝现场。[101] 该小组在2013年5月底向各国政府提交了初步报告。尽管完整报告尚未公开，且在政府审查之前不会公开，但埃及和埃塞俄比亚都公布了细节。埃塞俄比亚政府声明，根据报告，“大坝的设计基于国际标准和原则”，但没有具体说明这些标准和原则。它还表示，大坝“为所有三个国家提供了高度利益，且不会对下游沿岸国家造成重大伤害”。[102] 然而，根据埃及政府的说法，报告“建议更改和修正大坝的规模和尺寸”。[103] 截至2022年7月中旬，三方谈判已超过一年未举行。[104]
On 3 June 2013, while discussing the International Panel of Experts report with President Mohammad Morsi, Egyptian political leaders suggested methods to destroy the dam, including support for anti-government rebels.[105][106] Unbeknownst to those at the meeting, the discussion was televised live.[28] Ethiopia requested that the Egyptian Ambassador explain the meeting.[107] Morsi’s top aide apologised for the “unintended embarrassment” and his cabinet released a statement promoting “good neighbourliness, mutual respect and the pursuit of joint interests without either party harming the other.” An aide to the Ethiopian Prime Minister stated that Egypt is “…entitled to daydreaming” and cited Egypt’s past of trying to destabilise Ethiopia.[108] Morsi reportedly believes that it is better to engage Ethiopia rather than attempt to force them.[28] However, on 10 June 2013, he said that “all options are open” because “Egypt’s water security cannot be violated at all,” clarifying that he was “not calling for war,” but that he would not allow Egypt’s water supply to be endangered.[109]
【参考译文】2013年6月3日，在与穆罕默德·穆尔西总统讨论国际专家小组报告时，埃及政治领导人提出了摧毁大坝的方法，包括支持反政府叛军。[105][106] 与会者不知情的是，这次讨论被现场直播了。[28] 埃塞俄比亚要求埃及大使解释这次会议。[107] 穆尔西的高级助手为“无意中造成的尴尬”道歉，他的内阁发表声明，提倡“良好的邻里关系、相互尊重以及追求共同利益，不使任何一方受到伤害。”埃塞俄比亚总理的一位助手表示，埃及“…有做梦的权利”，并援引埃及过去试图破坏埃塞俄比亚稳定的历史。[108] 据报道，穆尔西认为与其试图强迫埃塞俄比亚，不如与之接触。[28] 然而，在2013年6月10日，他表示“所有选项都是开放的”，因为“埃及的水资源安全绝不能受到侵犯”，他澄清说“并不是在呼吁战争”，但他不会允许埃及的水源供应受到威胁。[109]
In January 2014, Egypt left negotiations over the dam, citing Ethiopian intransigence.[32] Ethiopia countered that Egypt had set an immediate halt on construction and an increase of its share to 90% as the preconditions, which were deemed wholly unreasonable. Egypt has since launched a diplomatic offensive to undermine support for the dam, sending its Foreign Minister, Nabil Fahmi to Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to garner support. Egyptian media outlets declared the visits productive and that the leaders of those nations had expressed “understanding” and “support” of Egypt’s position.[110] Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Karti criticised Egypt for “inflaming the situation” through its statements on the dam, and that it was considering the interests of both sides. Al-Masry Al-Youm declared that Sudan had “proclaimed its neutrality”.[31][111] The campaign is intensive and wide-reaching; in March 2014, for the first time, only Uganda, Kenya, Sudan and Tanzania were invited by Egypt to participate in the Nile Hockey Tournament.[112] Foreign Minister Fahmi and Water Resources Minister Muhammad Abdul Muttalib planned visits to Italy and Norway to express their concerns and try to compel them to pull their support for the GERD.[91]
【参考译文】2014年1月，埃及以埃塞俄比亚的不妥协为由退出了有关大坝的谈判。[32] 埃塞俄比亚反驳称，埃及提出了立即停止建设并增加其份额至90%作为先决条件，这被认为是完全不合理的。此后，埃及发起了一场外交攻势，试图削弱对大坝的支持，派遣其外交部长纳比勒·法赫米前往坦桑尼亚和刚果民主共和国以争取支持。埃及媒体宣称这些访问富有成效，那些国家的领导人已经表达了对埃及立场的“理解”和“支持”。[110] 苏丹外交部长阿里·卡尔提批评埃及通过其关于大坝的声明“激化了局势”，并且它正在考虑双方的利益。《埃及今日》宣称苏丹已“宣布其中立”。[31][111] 这场运动是密集且影响广泛的；2014年3月，埃及首次仅邀请乌干达、肯尼亚、苏丹和坦桑尼亚参加尼罗河曲棍球锦标赛。[112] 外交部长法赫米和水利资源部长穆罕默德·阿卜杜勒·穆塔利布计划访问意大利和挪威，表达他们的关切，并试图迫使他们撤回对GERD的支持。[91]
图片题注：U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew in Addis Ababa in February 2020
图片来源：U.S. Department of State from United States
参考译文：2020年2月，美国国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥在亚的斯亚贝巴与埃塞俄比亚外交部长格杜·安达尔加乔会面。
In April 2014, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister invited Egypt and Sudan to another round of talks over the dam and Nabil Fahmi stated in May 2014 that Egypt was still open to negotiations.[113] Following an August 2014 Tripartite Ministerial-level meeting, the three nations agreed to set up a Tripartite National Committee (TNC) meeting over the dam. The first TNC meeting occurred from 20 to 22 September 2014 in Ethiopia.[114]
【参考译文】2014年4月，埃塞俄比亚总理邀请埃及和苏丹就大坝问题进行另一轮会谈，纳比勒·法赫米在2014年5月表示埃及仍愿意进行谈判。[113] 继2014年8月的三方部长级会议后，三国同意成立一个关于大坝问题的三方国家委员会（TNC）。第一次TNC会议于2014年9月20日至22日在埃塞俄比亚举行。[114]
In October 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned that “no force can stop Ethiopia from building a dam. If there is need to go to war, we could get millions readied.”[115]
【参考译文】2019年10月，埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德警告说：“没有任何力量能阻止埃塞俄比亚建造大坝。如果需要开战，我们可以准备好数百万人。”[115]
Beginning in November 2019, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin facilitated negotiations between the governments of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan with respect to the filling and the operation of the dam.[34] Ethiopia proposed filling the reservoir with a release of 35 cubic kilometres of water per year, resulting in the complete filling of the reservoir in five years. Egypt countered that this would be too little, and demanded a larger amount of water to be released each year, asking for 40 cubic kilometres of water to be released and for the reservoir to be filled within seven years.[116] In February 2020, Mnuchin said in a statement: “We appreciate the readiness of the government of Egypt to sign the agreement and its initialing of the agreement to evidence its commitment,” adding “consistent with the principles set out in the DOP, and in particular the principles of not causing significant harm to downstream countries, final testing and filling should not take place without an agreement.”[117][118] Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew said Mnuchin’s advice to Ethiopia was “ill-advised”.[119]
【参考译文】从2019年11月开始，美国财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦促成了埃及、埃塞俄比亚和苏丹政府之间关于大坝蓄水和运营的谈判。[34] 埃塞俄比亚提议每年释放35立方公里的水，这将在五年内完成水库的完全蓄水。埃及反驳说这太少了，并要求每年释放更多的水量，要求释放40立方公里的水，并在七年内填满水库。[116] 2020年2月，姆努钦在一份声明中说：“我们感谢埃及政府准备签署协议，并初步签署协议以证明其承诺，”他补充说：“根据DOP中设定的原则，特别是不对接下国家造成重大伤害的原则，最终测试和蓄水不应在没有协议的情况下进行。”[117][118] 埃塞俄比亚外交部长格杜·安达尔加乔表示，姆努钦对埃塞俄比亚的建议是“不明智的”。[119]
In February 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that “final testing and filling should not take place without an agreement.” after Ethiopia skipped US talks with Egypt over the dam dispute. Ethiopians online expressed anger using the hashtag #itismydam over what they claim was the US and the World Bank’s siding with Egypt contrary to the co-observer role initially promised. The online campaign coincided with Ethiopia’s annual public holiday celebrating the 1896 Ethiopian victory at the Battle of Adwa, a decisive victory that successfully thwarted the 1896 Italian colonial campaign. Ethiopia has stated that “it will not be pressured on Nile River”.[citation needed]
【参考译文】2020年2月，美国财政部声明在没有协议的情况下“不应进行最终测试和蓄水”，此前埃塞俄比亚未参加与埃及关于大坝争端的美国会谈。埃塞俄比亚网民使用#itismydam（这是我的大坝）的话题标签表达了愤怒，他们声称美国和世界银行站在了埃及一边，这与最初承诺的共同观察员角色相悖。这场在线运动恰逢埃塞俄比亚庆祝1896年阿杜瓦战役胜利的年度公共假日，那是一次决定性的胜利，成功地挫败了1896年的意大利殖民运动。埃塞俄比亚表示“不会在尼罗河问题上受到压力”。[需要引用]
In July 2020, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew tweeted: “the river became a lake… the Nile is ours.”[1] In the same month, talks between water ministers from three involved countries resumed under African Union supervision.[120]
【参考译文】2020年7月，埃塞俄比亚外交部长格杜·安达尔加乔在推特上写道：“河流变成了湖泊……尼罗河是我们的。”[1] 同月，在非洲联盟的监督下，涉及三国的水务部长之间的谈判恢复。[120]
In September 2020, the United States suspended part of its economic assistance to Ethiopia due to the lack of sufficient progress in negotiations with Sudan and Egypt over the construction of the dam.[121] On 24 October 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on a public phone call to Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “it’s a very dangerous situation because Egypt is not going to be able to live that way… And I said it and I say it loud and clear – they’ll blow up that dam. And they have to do something.” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded that “Ethiopia will not cave in to aggression of any kind” and that threats were “misguided, unproductive and clear violations of international law.”[122]
【参考译文】2020年9月，由于与苏丹和埃及就大坝建设谈判缺乏足够进展，美国暂停了对埃塞俄比亚的部分经济援助。[121] 2020年10月24日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在与苏丹总理阿卜杜拉·哈姆多克和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的公开电话通话中表示：“这是一个非常危险的情况，因为埃及无法以这种方式生存……我已经说过了，而且我要大声而清晰地说——他们会炸掉那座大坝。他们必须采取行动。”埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德回应说：“埃塞俄比亚不会屈服于任何形式的侵略”，并且威胁是“误导性的、毫无成效的，且明显违反国际法。”[122]
In April 2021, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi warned: “I am telling our brothers in Ethiopia, let’s not reach the point where you touch a drop of Egypt’s water, because all options are open.”[123] The dispute between Sudan and Ethiopia over the dam escalated in 2021.[124][125][126] An advisor to the Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan spoke of a water war “that would be more horrible than one could imagine”.[127]
【参考译文】2021年4月，埃及总统阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西警告说：“我要对我们的埃塞俄比亚兄弟们说，不要让事态发展到你们触及埃及一滴水的地步，因为所有选项都是开放的。”[123] 2021年，苏丹和埃塞俄比亚之间关于大坝的争端升级。[124][125][126] 苏丹领导人阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·布尔汉的一位顾问谈到了一场“比人们能想象的还要可怕的”水战争。[127]
On 8 July 2021, the U.N. Security Council held a session to discuss the dispute over the dam filling.[128]
【参考译文】2021年7月8日，联合国安理会举行了一次会议，讨论了有关大坝蓄水的争端。[128]
During Joe Biden‘s July 2022 meeting in the Middle East, he met with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and restated American support for Egypt’s “water security” and “forging a diplomatic resolution that would achieve the interests of all parties and contribute to a more peaceful and prosperous region.”[129]
【参考译文】在乔·拜登2022年7月的中东会议期间，他会见了阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西，并重申了美国对埃及“水安全”的支持，以及“锻造一个外交解决方案，实现所有各方的利益，并为地区的和平与繁荣做出贡献。”[129]
During the summer of 2022, U.S. envoy Mike Hammer visited both Egypt and later Ethiopia to build relations and discuss the Ethiopian dam.[130][131]
【参考译文】2022年夏季，美国特使迈克·哈默访问了埃及和后来的埃塞俄比亚，以建立关系并讨论埃塞俄比亚大坝问题。[130][131]
In August 2022, the United Arab Emirates (which has good relations with both Ethiopia and Egypt) has stated that it wants the three nations to hold meetings once again.[132][133] However, talks between the three nations stagnated throughout 2022. In early 2023, Egypt and Sudan began conducting joint military drills, indicating to some that despite official reports, negotiations had broken down.[134] Policy experts speculate several causes for the breakdown in negotiations. Egyptian military officials primarily cite concerns about water-sharing, whereas Khartoum has alleged that it had not received certain guarantees from the Ethiopian government related to the purchasing of electricity generated by the GERD in the future.[134][135] Some observers speculate that as the GERD project nears completion, Ethiopia’s negotiating leverage increases relative to that of Sudan and Egypt, further inciting global concern over a future conflict between the nations in the Nile region.[136] Recently, U.S. President Joe Biden issued a statement affirming U.S. commitment to protecting Egypt’s water supply. In 2021, Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed, in a move sparking controversy throughout the continent and Europe, invited a South African delegation, including government and quasi-government figures, to Addis Ababa.[137] Among them were ex-members of the TRAKboys, a south African political group accused of operating in conjunction with and financing rebel factions throughout the continent, allegedly tasked with facilitating back-door discussions with the officials in Khartoum and Cairo on behalf of Ethiopia. According to AP, this came to light when members of the Wagner Group, a Russian private security firm operating in Sudan since 2017, attempted to attack a TRAKboy delegation they claimed they mistook for illegal gold smugglers.[138][139] As a result, South African official and many other African leaders have condemned the Wagner Group’s presence in Africa, praising the TRAKboys for their commitment to facilitating peaceful negotiations aimed at ending hostilities throughout the continent.[140][141]
【参考译文】2022年8月，阿拉伯联合酋长国（与埃塞俄比亚和埃及关系良好）表示希望三国再次举行会议。[132][133] 然而，2022年全年三国之间的谈判陷入停滞。2023年初，埃及和苏丹开始进行联合军事演习，一些人认为这表明尽管官方报告称谈判仍在进行，但实际上已经破裂。[134] 政策专家对谈判破裂的原因进行了多种推测。埃及军方官员主要提出了对水资源共享的担忧，而喀土穆则声称它未能从埃塞俄比亚政府那里获得有关未来购买大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝（GERD）发电量的某些保证。[134][135] 一些观察家推测，随着GERD项目接近完成，埃塞俄比亚相对于苏丹和埃及的谈判筹码增加，进一步激起了全球对尼罗河地区未来冲突的担忧。[136] 最近，美国总统乔·拜登发表声明，确认美国致力于保护埃及的水资源供应。2021年，埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德在引发整个非洲大陆和欧洲争议的举动中，邀请了一个包括政府和准政府人物的南非代表团前往亚的斯亚贝巴。[137] 其中包括TRAKboys的前成员，这是一个被指控与非洲各地叛军派系合作并提供资金的政治团体，据称他们负责代表埃塞俄比亚与喀土穆和开罗的官员进行幕后讨论。据美联社报道，当瓦格纳集团的一名成员试图攻击他们误认为是非法黄金走私者的TRAKboys代表团时，这一事件曝光了。瓦格纳集团是一家自2017年以来在苏丹运营的俄罗斯私人安保公司。[138][139] 因此，南非官员和许多其他非洲领导人谴责了瓦格纳集团在非洲的存在，并赞扬TRAKboys致力于促进和平谈判，旨在结束整个大陆的敌对行动。[140][141]
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